Budgets and expectations are generally separate and exclusive from each other but in golf they converge constantly. The budgeting of major championship victories for players is a frivolous exercise and those who participate invariably over budget once a player with real pedigree breaks through. Winning one usually raises our expectations for more and those who don’t get one early either are deemed as underachieving or destined for a short haul overall. Historically, great players usually didn’t wait long to break the seal on major championship victories, with a few exceptions, but today’s game presents a different approach to determining who and how many.
Jack Nicklaus’ first professional win was the U.S. Open in 1962 in a playoff over Arnold Palmer. Foreshadowing for one of the most absurd careers and major championship resumes the game will ever see. Tiger Woods won the Masters in 1997 by 12 shots in his first full season as a professional. Ushering in what I refer to as the 100-year flood of a career. Arnold Palmer won the U.S. Amateur in 1954 and in his ninth major championship start won the 1958 Masters. It took Ben Hogan a little longer, one because it took him a little longer to find his footing in professional golf (and World War II canceled three years of major championships golf) and most Americans weren’t even competing in the Open Championship at that time. Hogan would break through in the 1946 PGA Championship and his nine major victories in a condensed period will be hard pressed to be equaled by anyone in today’s game. More recently, Jordan Spieth captured his first major in his 8th professional start at the 2015 Masters and Justin Thomas won the 2017 PGA in his 10th major start. Conversely, Phil Mickelson had 22 wins and was 33 years of age before he finally broke through at the 2004 Masters and was historically one the most accomplished winners in PGA Tour history without a major when he finally crossed the line. Sergio Garcia was a victim, just ask him. Whether it was of the draw, dumb luck, his own petulance or trying to swim in the Tiger Woods riptide. He finally got his major in 2017, and like Greg Norman, Tom Weiskopf, and Fred Couples, his major victories seem much less than was expected. To say nothing for Colin Montgomerie, Lee Westwood, or Doug Sanders. When we start to project, I think we hand out way too many, neglecting to factor in how fickle it all is and how history is our greatest guide and yet we don’t trust it to forecast the future.
Which brings us to the next major in the men’s game at Oak Hill for the 105th PGA Championship. Oak Hill has sneaky good history. Cary Middlecoff, Lee Trevino, Jack Nicklaus, Curtis Strange all are in the Hall of Fame and won majors at Oak Hill. Shaun Micheel was an upset in one of the more upsetting major years in history in 2003 and Jason Dufner was the 21st ranked player in the world when he won the last major played there in 2013 at the PGA. Under the direction of Andrew Green, the East Course is being returned to many of the Donald Ross looks and design principles from years ago and I’m feeling a really good week for the club and the reception the course receives from the players. Since 2010 there have been seven players who have made the PGA their first major championship victory and there is a stable of players with similar accomplishments who are good enough to make Oak Hill their first.
Xander Schauffele has 23 major starts and has been in the fire late several times at different majors. He was the last line of defense to Francisco Molinari at the Open in 2018 and was in the heat at the Masters in 2019 and 2021. He has six top 5’s in majors and his wins have bold type with an Olympic gold medal, The Tour Championship, the Tournament of Champions and a World Golf Championship. He is as accomplished as any player without a major title.
Patrick Cantlay has lived around the top 10 in the world for several years and his overall production is just short of Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler. His major record is skimpy for the standards he lives by with only three top 10’s in 24 major starts. He has dubiously retreated in a few big moments late like the 2019 Masters, where he faded to a tie for 9th. With eight wins and tons of cash, Patrick needs more major moments late on Sundays to quiet a steady cynicism that is associated with his chances of winning one of the big four.
Tony Finau went years without winning and in the last 19 starts he has racked up four wins. If you assess those fields, they all lacked depth of top 20 players. That is not his fault but it’s the reality of the players who he’s beat in those weeks. He did go through world number one, Jon Rahm, in Mexico which is a notch and his major record in 27 starts is sturdy. Tony has top 5 in all four majors and finished in a tie for seventh in the Masters in April. Additionally, he has been one of the better Americans in the last three team competitions. Finau is going to win a major and Oak Hill could be the spot.
Cameron Young only has seven major starts in his young career, but he ran third at the 2022 PGA and was sensational in pushing Cam Smith to the line at the Open Championship. When he wins it’ll be the first of many and a major as his first makes complete sense. Add in the presence of Paul Tesori on his bag and he has a guy with many late Sunday tee times giving advice and pulling clubs.
Max Homa wins a lot now and with that comes a referendum on his major starts. In his 14 major starts in his career, he has yet to notch a top 10 finish, but last year’s PGA produced his best result, T13, and he knows people are making note of his results in these events now. Winning habitually and being on American teams means we keep score during major weeks. It’s time for Max to contend. He’s that good.
Viktor Hovland has deficiencies the closer he gets to the hole, but he is showing improvement. Major winners on average are going to miss 16 to 18 greens over the course of the week and Hovland will need to be more efficient around the greens, but he has the ball striking to stand tall with anyone in the game. 13 major starts have produced a couple top 10’s including a tie for fourth at the 2022 Open championship. Hovland is most certainly capable of showing major championship chops he just needs to be better than he’s been on and around the greens.
Players will tell you that more players than ever can win tour events. Less can win major championships but there is still a legit pool of players capable of breaking through next week. The reason why no player other than Tiger and Phil have gotten to five major titles or more in the last 35 years is because more can, and the wealth has been divided. If we are to see a first-time major winner at Oak Hill, I’ll ride with Tony Finau.