The Card – Volume XIX

The Card – Volume XIX

18 thoughts, observations and predictions…

 

  1. The next player to leave for LIV should get an extra 10 million in the bonus if he says “I’m looking to shrink the game.”  Enough of the lame “grow the game” talking point.  Its professional sports, you took the best offer. Its OK.
  1. Beyond Tiger and Rory, who are non-starters to leave for LIV, Jon Rahm is the most valuable piece on the chess board.  Global, provocative, insistent on always being in the hunt and will likely be on the doorstep of a career grand slam in the next couple years.  He’s a massive loss for the PGA Tour.
  1. One of the most valuable traits of a star in any sport for the league they represent is reliability.  Stars are generally not injury prone.  Stars show up every night and are never described as inconsistent and stars deliver beyond the physical performance.  Accepting the responsibility of being a leading voice and taking positions on issues.  Rahm was all that and his absence from all facets of tour life is a profound VOID.
  1. This is not virtue signaling in saying Rahm went for the money.  It’s just the facts.  It always starts with the money, but he was nudged toward the money by other real factors.  One, believing he will have access back to tour events soon enough, the clumsy and turbulent leadership of the tour, his relationships with Phil and Sergio, a sense of feeling like he wasn’t as valuable as Rory, but it starts and ends with the money.  Like it does with most everything.
  1. The exodus of players to LIV will continue as early as this week and what will also continue is a louder and louder drumbeat from the PGA Tour membership to remove Jay Monahan.  The grumbling privately from tour players about new leadership is going to get very public with each passing day and with each and every departure of another top player.
  1. The flirtation with a handful of American based private equity groups has not pleased the PIF (Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia) and the Rahm signing was an emphatic message of dissatisfaction with the ongoing process of resolving the framework agreement.  
  1. The number of reporters, pundits, hosts and players, who have periodically declared the demise of LIV, including Rory McIlroy, need to understand that those with the most are the ones who last the longest.  A billion-dollar investment from any of the PE groups bidding is chump change for the PIF.  They are in control of what happens next.
  1. Rory McIlroy has popped up on twitter this past week to comment on the rollback and to take a Saturday night swipe at Henrik Stenson.  Responding to a snarky post from a self-described performance coach and Titleist ambassador, Lou Stagner, Rory displayed the petulant streak that he’s flashed on rare occasions.  Showing support for Luke Donald is fantastic but simultaneously dump-trucking Stenson was beneath Rory.  When you punch down you usually land the punch but never score with the judges.
  1. The only person we didn’t hear from after the Rahm departure was the commissioner of the PGA Tour.  Tiger Woods social post on behalf of the player board expressing solidarity makes it clear who is in charge.
  1. Does LIV sell the old school fake leather sleeve letterman jacket being modeled by Jon Rahm on Fox News? If they don’t it’s a BIG miss.
  1. The LIV hot stove was scolding this past week.  Lost in the Rahm news was the trading of Matt Wolff straight up for Taylor Gooch.  Who is Smash’s GM, Howie Roseman?
  1. The USGA/R&A universal rollback announcement was met with equal parts pragmatism, hysteria, misinformation, and sensibility.  Many of the same people who said this will ruin the game and drive millions away from it said out of the other side of their mouths that the changes are so small why do it in the first place.  Which is it?
  1. Comparing sports is a dicey proposition but one thing that all sports must try to do is protect themselves from themselves.  Rules changes in sports can be made for entertainment, safety, monetary and sustainability purposes.  Governance is not a frivolous exercise, and this is about 2060 as much as it is about 2030.
  1. Played Old Town in Winston Salem, North Carolina again this past week.  The routing by Perry Maxwell and the restoration of the original intent by Coore/Crenshaw make it one of the finest courses in America.  The tilt of the land and the stream system is so, so good.
  1. The No Laying Up conversation between Chris Solomon and Lee Trevino is what the platform of podcasts can be.  Free flowing story telling where the listener gets lost in the conversation. Outstanding content as the kids like to say.
  1. Wells Fargo didn’t decide to not renew their sponsorship with the PGA Tour because Jon Rahm left.  This was the culmination of a long evaluation conducted by Wells Fargo that determined that the investment couldn’t produce the necessary return.  They won’t be the last title sponsor to make that determination.  The house of the PGA Tour is not in order.
  1. Kieran Vincent, Kalle Samooja, and Jinichiro Kozuma qualified onto the LIV tour through their qualifier in Abu Dhabi this past weekend.  Combined they’ve earned less than $5 million dollars on the Asian Tour, DP World Tour and Japan Tour respectively. They are now playing for somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 to $25 million for every event.  As Robert De Niro said at the end of “Midnight Run”, “That’s a very respectable neighborhood. 
  1. The animated renderings of the new 21 golf club being built outside Aiken, South Carolina signal several things.  The greater Aiken area is officially on fire with next level golf.  King/Collins are as provocative as any designers in the marketplace, and finally, 18 holes is simply not enough anymore for the private retreat offering.  Whiskey routes, 2nd courses, short courses, putting courses, and hunting and fishing are all on the table for new developers.
The Card – Volume XVIII

The Card – Volume XVIII

18 thoughts, observations and predictions…

 

  1. The reported rollback of the golf ball universally will be debated for the years ahead.  As I’ve stated from the outset of the Distance Insights report, I support bifurcation.  I have concerns about sustainability in 50 years not five years.  
  1. The two biggest stars in the men’s game, Tiger and Rory, support the rollback which is helpful for the governing bodies but they will need smart and sensible data and messaging in the years ahead to calm the masses.
  1. Every tour player screaming about the rollback are paid messengers for the manufacturers.  It doesn’t mean that they may not have reasonable concerns, but they are paid messengers.
  1. Tiger Woods’ week at the Hero was a start and that’s all it was.  If he can’t build on this and his next start, wherever it is, and is starting over then he can’t build.  Without a modest building to something, the big stuff is unattainable.
  1. Tiger is a genius and there are few others who could have as many iterations of a golf swing and continue to win like he has but this transformation is really impressive.  Transferring speed produced in large measure from the twitchy lower body to the now yoked upper body is wild to see.
  1. As he approaches 48 at the end of December, Tiger has NEVER had more value to the PGA Tour.  Him playing a little bit is massive.  His voice publicly on the direction of the tour is vital and his weight on the issues is exponentially more significant than anyone else in the game.
  1. The Jon Rahm rumors to LIV are loud.  His departure would be a massive hit to the PGA Tour.  He’s dynamic, interesting, curious and good television.  His loss would be far greater than any other the tour has stomached to date.
  1. If Rahm’s departure is followed by additional top 20 players in the world leaving for LIV, the tour will be in the most desperate position they’ve been in, to date, to find common ground with LIV.  LIV is not desperate for financial solvency; the PGA Tour is in a very precarious position with multiple title sponsors while trying to compensate their top players based on something other than market conditions.
  1. Jordan Spieth has a multi win season in 2024 and will be in the deep end of the pool in two majors with chances to win both the Masters and the US Open.
  1. Joaquin Niemann won the Australian Open to become the first Chilean born player to win a truly historic event.  It makes you wonder what the make-up of the U.S. and International Presidents Cup teams will be next fall.  As a PGA Tour property it would appear there will be no LIV players on either side.  Another tour property devalued by LIV.
  1. Matt Fitzpatrick reported the information regarding Collin Morikawa’s use of green reading data.  Is he a snitch?  No, he was trying to get clarification on what was permissible.  He also has a responsibility to protect the field.  He did the right thing even though it may have initially appeared smarmy.
  1. Ashleigh Buhai defended her title at the Australian Open.  Winning any event in back-to-back years is rare especially an event sharing the stage with the men.  Buhai will have a big 2024.
  1. Luke Donald running it back as European Ryder Cup captain is impressive.  He knows what he’s trying to do in the most hostile environment in Ryder Cup history.  He could have taken his blowout win and enjoyed lifetime lofty status.  Rolling the dice at Bethpage speaks to his sneaky competitive streak.
  1. Paul McGinley should be the choice for lead analyst for NBC.  Smart, plugged in and unafraid.
  1. The College Football Playoff proves again that anything that relies on an outside agency like a judge to determine outcomes is doomed.  A card and pencil is unambiguous.  Shoot a score, put the number on the board and fall where you fall.
  1. Tiger will not captain the U.S. Ryder Cup team at Bethpage.  The PGA of America should think completely outside their historic model.
  1. Scottie Scheffler will figure out his putting woes with Phil Kenyon and no one will win more than him in 2024.
  1. As we embark on a week of digging in on the ball rollback, I just hope the discussion is civil.  We can all make data dance in any direction we want and although I support the rollback, I also respect the concerns of the recreational player.  This is about 2050 as much as it is 2030.