by Gary Williams | Jul 16, 2024 | Blog
Feelings are not facts. But we consume sports at a time that “takes” and what used to simply be called opinions are flooding our collective zones of consciousness. Engagement farming is an insult to every farmer, living and dead. It’s certainly real and it’s certainly sad and even golf has become susceptible to dime store trolling for “likes” and attention. Rory McIlroy is a generational performer with one of the great lists of accomplishments in the history of the sport. Pre-LIV he was not perceived as a polarizing figure but his dogged pro PGA tour position upon the creation of LIV, which has subsequently cooled, coupled with his insistence to simultaneously and agonizingly contend at many of the major championships over that same time have made him golf’s every week needle mover. While Bryson DeChambeau and Scottie Scheffler have won majors in 2024, Rory makes the most people sit forward when he jumps on the screen. Which gets us to right now.
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Rory’s sprint to three of the four major championships before the age of twenty-five not only got him a chair at a small table with Jack and Tiger, it naturally and not hyperbolically, ear marked him for eight majors ten years on from his last in August of 2014. Then golf happened. Not the same golf that happened to Tiger after June of 2008, or Arnie after April of 1964, or Greg Norman just whenever. Presumption in golf is more precarious than flop shots from tight lies after a night of transfusions. It seems unfathomable that ten years next month Rory punted Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson off the 18th green at Valhalla and appeared to usher in his own era, complete with the career grand slam at his doorstep at the entry of Magnolia Lane starting in 2015. It would be easier to explain if his major drought was a result of career crippling putter yips or full swings yips let alone a debilitating injury. On the contrary, he’s missed one major since his last major win, the 2015 Open, and he’s been the most consistent performer without a win in that time, racking up 21 Top Ten’s in 38 major starts. Additionally, he’s finished in the Top 5 11 times, and been runner up on four occasions. That last occasion was met with the Rory reflex to flee the scene at Pinehurst. It was fight and then it was flight. He’s incurred some deep cuts while also enjoying one of the most decorated careers of the past 50 years. Which makes Rory a riddle.
Who seems to have it all but leaves you wanting? Who has done so much yet it seems so incomplete? Who has been argued as the best at his best for a decade but hasn’t been the best even ONCE in a major in ten years? Rory. His current place historically is way outside the curve of all players who won at least five majors in his career in regard to how long it took them to click the odometer from four to five. Tiger went from four to five in one month, Gene Sarazen one month, Arnold Palmer nine months, Tom Watson nine months, Ben Hogan ten months and Jack Nicklaus one year. It took Sam Snead, Lee Trevino and Nick Faldo an unfathomable two years to go from four to five, Gary Player, Byron Nelson and Phil Mickelson an excruciating three years. Seve Ballesteros and Brooks Koepka went an unimaginable four years to cross from four to five major victories. Only Peter Thompson who won five Open Championships went longer than five years and that’s only because he chose to play in only three United States based majors between 1958 and 1965. Rory is trying to cross the widest Rubicon amplified by a psychological riptide never navigated by a historic player in his prime. Ernie Els and Raymond Floyd’s fourth major wins were curtain pulling encores. And here’s the kicker, he’s exceedingly normal. Which for all the swing breakdowns and lamenting of a poorly timed tepid putter the dime store psycho analysis of who he is might be why he finds himself in this weird historical space.
Rory reads. He’s affected and effected. As much as he tries to avoid indulging the content creators and ink-stained scribes, only a few left, he just can’t help himself. Being exceedingly normal also means you are prone to petulance, stubbornness, doubt and most importantly vulnerability. You think years and close calls when you know you are the top of the class does not harden those emotions and behaviors? You watch and follow sports long enough you start to feel things as they are happening. Momentum is an extraordinary phenomenon. I followed Rory every day of the U.S. Open and he was as close to complete for those four days as I’ve seen him under the most demanding conditions until he wasn’t. It was not the tee shot on 15 that was flighted too low for most analysts liking or the alarming short miss on 16. After grabbing a two-shot lead on 13 with back-to-back birdies he did something he had not done all week. His tee shot on 14 was quick and low left and I sensed something getting quickly weird. From that moment his decision making and execution got disorienting, and just flat off. Being self-conscious is also another very normal feeling. Some historic players have had a major or three kicked their way and maybe Rory will require a massive break to cross the line again but this pursuit which has included, to his great credit, a handful of heart wrenching results is not just in the recesses of his mind it’s at the forefront of everybody’s mind. Like I said, you get feelings. Patrick Mahomes felt completely inevitable last year and for the foreseeable future. Michael and Tiger were inevitable. Rory has felt on the wrong side of that equation and getting gutted wickedly seems to reinforce that feeling.
This week its neither the home of golf nor the home of American golf. Both being sites of recent Rory sudden morosity. The history of men’s major championship golf is marked by resounding triumph after heartbreaking defeats. Phil Mickelson got off the mat after the Merion U.S. Open and his multiple errant wedge shots to soar to victory at Muirfield a month later. Adam Scott was lifeless after his slow burn to defeat at St. George’s in 2012 only to be fitted for a green jacket in the next major the following spring at Augusta National. Rory is four rounds away from going into his 11th year between major victories. Oddly, his hero, Tiger Woods was facing that dynamic when he won the Masters in 2019. Tiger was rolling the odometer from 14 to 15, Rory is trying to progress from four to five. McIlroy is as complete a player as he’s been in his mind, and I agree with him. It’s not simply Bob Rotella self-talk, his arsenal of shots is robust. He also possesses something exceedingly valuable in any walk of life, gratitude. He’s not jaded or bitter, albeit in the moments after Bryson brushed in the winning putt at Pinehurst, he simply wasn’t prepared to process the loss publicly. He loves what he does, and it doesn’t guarantee results, but it makes for a healthier head space. Picking winners of golf tournaments is fun and frivolous. At times players are pricklier and more temperamental than 3-year old getting into the gate at Churchill Downs, but the human condition makes them more reliable. The vagaries of the draw, the funkiness and fantastic nature of links golf can make things appear more random, which is also why its beautiful. It’s always darkest before the dawn, Rory is going to win the Open. Remember what I told you about feelings.
by Gary Williams | Jul 15, 2024 | The Card
18 observations, thoughts and predictions for the week in golf…
- Bob MacIntyre winning the Scottish Open is the best “home” win of this year and is right there with the Nick Taylor win minus the Adam Hadwin takedown. Add in the heartbreaking loss of last year to Rory McIlroy and the eagle on 16 and birdie make on 18 and you have a dream week for Bob and the Scottish Open. The co-sanctioned event with the DP and PGA Tours is a big hit. There should be at least one more each season.
- Adam Scott will eventually take consolation in the second-place finish at the Scottish Open and he should. He will lament not giving his birdie putt on 18 a better effort but his 2nd is his first top 10 since Phoenix in February. Scott was looking to become the oldest winner since Phil Mickelson’s win at the PGA in 2021. Winners in their 40’s is now a very rare species on tour and not likely to change so a chance from Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar, and Adam Scott or any other 40 something should be noted.
- Aaron Rai is playing the best golf of his PGA Tour career and with three top 5’s since the Byron Nelson and a very solid U.S. Open, he has become a player likely to win much sooner than never. He also moved to 50th in the FedEx Cup standings which actually mean something at this time of the year. 50th is the number for the 2nd playoff event and getting closer to 30th before the end of July is Rai’s next goal.
- Collin Morikawa finished T3-T4-T14 in the first three majors and he won the Open Championship in 2021. Collin had a solid putting week at the Scottish which is all that will keep him from being right in the thick of it next Sunday at Royal Troon. He’s a magical week away from having the best major championship season of his career and his chippy attitude about being overlooked has served him well.
- Ludvig Aberg has now gone five straight events, interrupted by a missed cut, without breaking 70 on Sunday. His 73 on Sunday at the Scottish included a 3 over 38 in the final nine holes. He’s a phenomenal talent and his habitual contending in his first season as a professional is widely impressive but he’s got a bad Sunday trend.
- I returned to Bandon Dunes this past week for two rounds and one overnight on the property. It’s my first visit since 2013 and the place is truly a mecca. To see the additional assets like Sheep Ranch, Shorty’s and the new food locations like the Ghost Tree Grill amplifies the resort’s determination to always be getting better. Driving only backroads from Portland on Wednesday gave me four hours to see the state of Oregon. Playing Pacific Dunes, first off, on Thursday in 25 mph winds was phenomenal. Seeing groups from all over the world of all ages only reinforces what I have said and written for years. Mike Keiser should be in the world golf hall of fame. You cannot impact the industry of golf the way he has, but more importantly given so many people such joy through the game and not be recognized.
- Spain had a very good Sunday. Carlos Alcaraz won Wimbledon, Spain won the Euro Cup by defeating England and Sergio Garcia won the LIV event in Andalucia, plus the Fireballs won the team title. Sergio is very proud of his home, and he argued after his win that the completion of the Spain sweep on Sunday would be one of the great days in Spanish sports history.
- Ayaka Furue became a major champion by winning the Evian Championship with a closing eagle on the last hole. Japan wins another major championship in 2024 and Furue crosses the major line for the first time. Evian is a major because it was given that distinction in 2013 and while I’ve never been there, I have zero interest in playing the golf course. I would enjoy looking over Lake Geneva, but the golf course looks absolutely dreadful.
- Nelly Korda finished T26 in the Evian and that’s her best finish in an event since her last win in the middle of May. For the presumptive player of the year the summer has been absolutely forgettable, but she can salvage it with a win at the Women’s British Open and a USA Solheim Cup victory. What appeared to be a year for the ages went weird and sideways on the third hole, the 12th, of the women’s U.S. Open.
- Royal Troon is an underrated member of the Open rota. It combines a wonderful list of champions with a secondary list of almost champions. Couple that with the routing of the course, the historic final rounds of several winners and you have a fantastic venue for the final men’s major of 2024. Bobby Locke, Arnold Palmer and Tom Watson won at Troon in their illustrious careers and Mark Calcavecchia, Tom Weiskopf and Justin Leonard won their only majors at Troon. All three could have won more and in a nice touch Justin Leonard will have the honor of hitting the opening tee shot on the 1st tee on Thursday morning.
- Jon Rahm needs a week in the worst way. There are years in great players careers where they simply don’t fire during the majors but Rahm has had a dreadful major season in 2024 after departing for LIV. He’s postured in a way that is equally defensive and delusional. Missing the U.S. Open with the foot ailment was unfortunate but in a year of Bryson’s rebirth, the Scheffler dominance week to week and the Schauffele breakthrough Rahm has been a non-story in a PRIME year of his career.
- I always believed Tiger would age best at the Open. He’s a ground game genius, he sees what only others dream of seeing with his visualization and he drips into the history books and understands the weightiness of the Open. However, he has not even seen a spark this year in the majors, he has only one shot, the cut, and the potential for cold and wet at the Open makes his fragile body more vulnerable to failing him. Troon was his first Open championship as a professional and I hope this will not be his last as has been suggested by some. At some point he will wake up the echoes for at least one round in a major.
- Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson had one of the great final round showdowns in major championship history at Troon in 2016 and Phil also lipped out for 62 in the opening round that week. To me, it was not better than the duel in the Sun with Nicklaus and Watson. First, Jack and Tom were both historically more significant figures than Henrik and Phil. Watson was becoming the best player of his generation and Jack provided the heroics on the 18th that Phil did not to force Watson to answer where Stenson was free to close with a low score, but the more important chapter goes to Turnberry in 1977.
- Speaking of the old guard, Brendon De Jonge, on our 5 Clubs Open Championship preview declared that Ernie Els would have a good week at the Open. That was before Ernie won at Firestone to earn a berth in the 2025 Players Championship. The Open is generally kind to the elders so a solid week is not unrealistic for the 2012 champion.
- Scottie Scheffler is a borderline lock for player of the year but what if Xander Schauffele won the Open Championship? Wait, what if he then won a playoff event and the tour championship? In 2015 Jordan Spieth won the first two majors and finished 4th and 2nd in the final two but it was Jason Day he won the PGA and the first two playoff events to put real heat on Spieth for POY. Spieth shut down all the noise by winning the tour championship, but I think the door would be ajar, if, and only if, Schauffele wins the Open.
- Luke Donald gets the big chair for the Open Championship on NBC. Luke is very bright, and the major stage will prove his chops on the air. I would expect him to have a solid performance and what will be most interesting is if one of “his guys” Rory, Fleetwood, Aberg, get in the heat late and make a critical mistake how he expresses his viewpoint.
- There is no reason to think Bryson DeChambeau will retreat at Troon. His U.S. Open win was comprehensive, and his head space has never been better. Passing him over as a favorite will be a mistake.
- It is always darkest before the dawn. I think Rory will win the Open. The tangible reasons, he’s never been more complete of a player, his record at the Open is outstanding, and maybe this was the way it was going to have to be to get over the line again. I think his bounce back will measure among the greatest we’ve ever seen from on the mat to champion golfer in the span of a month.
